Education

Canada Express Entry Year In Review: Occupation-Specific Draws Herald New Era

Published on December 30, 2023

This is not to say that all-program draws stopped in 2023. They still accounted for the vast majority of Invitations to Apply as IRCC issued the second most ITAs in a calendar year in the history of the program, at 110,266.

It was a dramatic shift through the gears compared to 2022 when just 46,538 ITAs were issued as Canada tried to reduce a processing backlog built up during the COVID-19 pandemic. This backlog still persists in many immigration categories, although not in the skilled worker class.

Still, 2023 was second only to 2021 in terms of the number of ITAs issued, and only by just over 4,000. This is more remarkable given that 2021 was the year of the record individual draw featuring 27,332 ITAs for Canadian Experience Class candidates.

Despite the high number of ITAs, IRCC officials still suspended draws for the month of November in 2023. There was never a clear explanation given for the suspension, with some speculation over whether a technical failure was to blame.

However, draws returned in December and thousands of ITAs were issued in the build up to Christmas, including four draws in a week at one stage.

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Given the high number of ITAs, it is no surprise that three of the top 10 quarters for in the history of Express Entry happened in 2023.

Indeed, the first quarter total of 37,558 invitations is the only one to come near to the two 44,000-plus quarters of 2021, during IRCC’s response to coronavirus.

Both the third and fourth quarters of 2023 also make it into the top 10, in eighth and 10^th places respectively.

As Canada’s immigration targets continue to increase, it is logical that the number of ITAs will continue to rise accordingly.

The result of the introduction of occupation-specific draws was a sharp increase in the variety of draws taking place in 2023.

Previously, Express Entry draws were almost exclusively all-program, with the odd Provincial Nominee Program and Federal Skilled Trades Program draw thrown in.

That changed during the pandemic, when Canadian Experience Class draws became the dominant category, as IRCC targeted candidates already in Canada.

But, in 2023, Canada conducted a total of nine different categories of draw with the various occupation-specific categories. The nine included a first draw targeted exclusively at Federal Skilled Worker Program candidates. FSW candidates had previously only been invited as part of all program draws.

Key

Blue: All-program	Orange: Healthcare	Dark Blue: Skilled trades
Red: PNP	Yellow: STEM	Grey: Transport
White: FSW	Green: French speakers	Purple: Farming and food

The introduction of so many different categories of draw had an impact on the all-program draws.

It was still the dominant category, with 76,700 ITAs issued over the year.

In the early part of the year, when draws were almost exclusively all-program, Comprehensive Ranking System scores remained relatively low, in the 480s.

With the introduction of occupation-specific draws in June, the gap between all-program draws grew. Candidates who would otherwise have been selected in all-program draws were included in occupation-specific draws, in which minimum CRS scores were lower.

As a result, there was a clear pattern of lower CRS scores for all-program draws in the first six months of the year, and higher CRS scores thereafter, illustrated in the graph below.

Meanwhile, there were only five PNP draws in 2023, featuring 4,396 ITAs. Minimum CRS scores fluctuated between 691 and 791. Scores are generally higher for PNP draws because candidates score an extra 600 points for their provincial nomination, on top of their core profile score.

PNP draws are likely to become less frequent as the Express Entry system matures. Provinces are now conducting their own draws much more frequently, reducing the need for PNP draws at the federal level.

With occupation-specific draws taking over, PNP draws could soon become a thing of the past for Express Entry.

Of all the new categories introduced in 2023, the most draws were conducted in the French-speaker category.

CRS scores ranged from 375 to 486 for the 8,700 invitations issued. Canada has a clear strategy to increase its population of French-speakers outside Quebec and it is no surprise that it was the only none-occupation category introduced in the new draw categories.

Healthcare draws featured 5,600 invitations and minimum scores ranging from 431 to 476. The lowest score of 431 came when IRCC invited 3,600 healthcare workers in an October 26 draw.

It will be important to note the pattern of CRS scores as healthcare draws to continue. The wide range of occupations featured in the category include nurses, doctors and surgeons.

There may have been only two STEM draws in 2023, but they featured 6,400 invitations.

In one draw on December 8, STEM candidates received 5,900 invitations with a minimum score of 481.

With STEM occupations in growing demand in Canada, expect draws in this category to grow with time.

Skilled trades occupation-specific draws, not to be confused with draws aimed at the Federal Skilled Trades Program, featured in two draws in 2023, with minimum CRS scores ranging from 388 to 425.

The draws featured 2,500 invitations. Skilled trades occupations, including in the construction industry, are in high demand in Canada, as it looks to build enough houses to address a shortage of homes for its growing immigrant population.

Transport occupations, specifically truck drivers, are another category in which Canada suffers severe shortages.

The two transport-focused draws in 2023 both had a CRS score of 435, with 1,670 ITAs issued.

The last category of the draw to be introduced in 2023 was farming and food, or agriculture and agri-food in the IRCC language.

Two draws featured CRS scores of 354 and 386, with a total of 1,000 invitations issued.

Express Entry in 2024

Canada’s 2024 to 2026 Immigration Levels Plan targets nearly 1.5 million newcomers over the next three years. That means Express Entry invitation numbers are only going to increase.

The important variable in that is public opinion, with indications in 2023 that it could be turning against welcoming too many newcomers.

But the huge number of newcomers does not look like dropping any time soon. Canada’s population increases are the largest among the G7 countries and that generally means economic progress.

Canada’s 2024 to 2026 Immigration Levels Plan

		2024	2025	2026
	Overall Planned Permanent Resident Admissions	485,000	500,000	500,000
Economic	Federal High Skilled	110,770	117,500	117,500
	Federal Economic Public Policies	3,000	–	–
	Federal Business	5,000	6,000	6,000
	Economic Pilots: Caregivers; Agri-Food Pilot; Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot; Economic Mobility Pathways Project	10,875	14,750	13,750
	Atlantic Immigration Program	6,500	8,500	8,500
	Provincial Nominee Program	110,000	120,000	120,000
	Quebec Skilled Workers and Business	To be determined	To be determined
	Total Economic	281,135	301,250	301,250
Family	Spouses, Partners and Children	82,000	84,000	84,000
	Parents and Grandparents	32,000	34,000	34,000
	Total Family	114,000	118,000	118,000
Refugees and Protected Persons	Protected Persons in Canada and Dependents Abroad	27,000	29,000	29,000
	Resettled Refugees – Government-AssistedFootnote7	21,115	15,250	15,250
	Resettled Refugees – Privately Sponsored	27,750	28,250	28,250
	Resettled Refugees – Blended Visa Office-Referred	250	250	250
	Total Refugees and Protected Persons	76,115	72,750	72,750
Humanitarian and Other	Total Humanitarian & Compassionate and Other	13,750	8,000	8,000

More invitations and more occupation-specific draws can be expected in 2024.

There is the possibility of new categories being introduced, but the likelihood is that the current ones will continue to grow, especially the healthcare and STEM occupations.

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