No 10 refuses to follow Cleverly in setting end of 2024 as target date for ending all small boat crossings – UK politics live | Politics

At the Downing Street lobby briefing the PM’s spokesperson also insisted that the reduction in small boat crossings in 2023 was not related to poor weather conditions. The spokesperson said:

As ever with small boats, we are always alive to seasonal effects.

But I think given the substantive and sustained decline, it is wrong to claim that this big reduction, this 36% reduction, is down to poor weather.

In fact, that assertion is not backed up by the facts. The number of good sailing days this year was only four fewer than the previous year.

There were 106 ‘red days’ in 2022, 102 in 2023. And we are bucking the trend of what we are seeing in Europe, where crossings are up significantly.”

So-called “red days” are days when the weather is deemed favourable for small boat crossings. They are red days for Border Force officials who have to deal with the arrivals.

James Cleverly, the home secretary, told LBC this morning that his aim was to reduce the number of people crossing the Channel on small boats to “zero” in 2024. Asked what his target for the year was, he replied:

My target is to bring it down to zero.

When the presenter, Nick Ferrari, asked him to confirm that he meant zero by the end of 2024, Cleverly replied:

That’s my target. My target is to reduce it to zero, to stop the boats. And I’m unambiguous about that.

And the point is, actually last year, the final figures last year, it was 36% reduction year on year. In the last half of last year, compared with the last half of the year before that, it was down by 45%. And the last quarter of last year, compared to the last quarter of the year before that, it was down by over 60%. So the trend is heading in the right direction.

But at the Downing Street lobby briefing this morning the prime minister’s spokesperson refused to endorse the end of the year as a target date for the elimination of small boat crossings. “I’m not setting a specific deadline beyond wanting to pass that legislation so we can get flights off the ground to provide the deterrent effect that is necessary,” he said.

Although Downing Street has adopted “stop the boats” as a target and a slogan, it has never said when this might happen. Rishi Sunak has suggested he does not expect this to happen before the election.

This is another example of how promises can be counterproductive. (See 12.30pm.) If Sunak had simply pledged last year to reduce small boat crossings, his article for the Express today would have been about how that was a promise kept. But, of course, he could not have said that last year because he would have been criticised by Tory MPs and rightwing papers for lack of ambition.

Politicians like making firm pledges. For a party in government, a promise can have a galvanising effect on the civil service machinery, focusing attention on outcomes and ensuring stuff happens. For voters, it’s a signal that a leader shares their concerns (assuming it’s the right pledge). And when politicians keep their promises, they build up trust.

But promises are also perilous because, if they get broken, policy failure becomes even more conspicuous. That is why politicians are generally quite cautious about making cast-iron commitments and why their pledges are normally heavily qualified.

Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, says Rishi Sunak has broken five promises on small boats. (See 11.07am.) By my count, she can only get to five by misrepresenting some pledges, or by treating policy aspirations as policy commitments. But, from a communications perspective, that does not really matter, because her thread on X this morning has successfully highlighted areas where Sunak’s performance on small boats has not lived up to expectations.

For pedants and purists, here is an analysis of whether firm promises have been broken in these areas.

Asylum backlog: Clearing the “legacy” asylum backlog was treated by the media and the government as a firm pledge, but when Sunak announced this in the Commons in December 2022 he said: “We expect to abolish the backlog of initial asylum decisions by the end of next year.” That “expect” was an attempt to leave wiggle room. Sunak clearly thinks his record, a massive increase in the rate at which claims are being processed (see 10.30am), is something to be proud of, but Cooper is right to point out that, because of the exemptions, the backlog has not been fully cleared.

Asylum hotel use: Sunak told MPs in December 2022 he wanted to end hotel use for asylum seekers, but he did not say when it would happen. He told the Commons:

We are spending £5.5m every day on using hotels to house asylum seekers. We must end this.

As Cooper points out, this is not happening.

Stopping the boats: Cooper says Sunak committed to stopping the boats in 2023 but, although this was one of his pledges for 2023, at the press conference where he unveiled them, he made it clear that he was not saying this would actually happen in 2023. In fact, he refused to say what the pledge actually meant; it would be for the public to judge, he said.

All arrivals to be returned: This is another topic where Sunak expressed a desire for something to happen without being specific about when. He told MPs in December 2022:

We will introduce new legislation to make it unambiguously clear that, if you enter the UK illegally, you should not be able to remain here. Instead, you will be detained and swiftly returned either to your home country or to a safe country where your asylum claim will be considered.

As Cooper points out, Sunak is nowhere near achieving this.

Small boats law: The firmest pledge from Sunak on small boats came when he delivered his five pledges this time last year, saying:

We will pass new laws to stop small boats, making sure that if you come to this country illegally, you are detained and swiftly removed.

If the pledge was “pass new laws”, he kept that, because the Illegal Migration Act became law. But, as Cooper points out, the Home Office has not implemented the key provisions, because they are reliant on the Rwanda deportation policy being lawful, which currently it’s not. But if you take the pledge as extending to the rest of the sentence, “making sure [etc]” – which is how a reasonable person would understand it – then it hasn’t been met.

If Rishi Sunak thought all anti-immigration rightwingers would welcome the announcement about the asylum application backlog this morning, he will be disappointed. Nigel Farage, the former leader of Ukip and the Brexit party, has expressed alarm about the number of people being granted asylum. (See 9.49am.)

And GB News, the rightwing news channel where Farage is a presenter, has also focused its news story on the number of asylum applications being granted.

Farage does not have a role in frontline politics at the moment. But he in effect controls Reform UK (the new version of the Brexit party) and he has repeatedly refused to deny suggestions that he is going to start being much more politically active as the election approaches.

Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, has posted a thread on X this morning claiming that Rishi Sunak has broken five promises on immigration made for 2023. It starts here.

PM & Home Secretary claiming they’ve cleared the asylum backlog this morning.

That’s just not true.

It’s one of five Sunak broken promises on asylum & small boats this year – yet another year of Tory asylum chaos, of gimmicks instead of grip.

Let’s look at the facts👇(1/7)

BROKEN PROMISE 1: Sunak claims to have cleared the asylum backlog. Not true. Not even cleared “legacy backlog” – 4,500 cases not done, 17,000 “withdrawn” by the Home Office but they’ve no idea where those people are And rest of backlog DOUBLED this yr Total backlog 99k (2/7)

BROKEN PROMISE 2: A yr ago, the PM claimed he would end asylum hotel use which was costing £6m a day. Instead it went up this year by 20% to 56,000, costing the British taxpayer more than £8m a day – and well over £2bn a year. (3/7)

BROKEN PROMISE 3: Sunak said he would stop the boats this year, but 2023 was second highest on record; almost 30,000 made the journey, 60x higher than 5yrs ago. Criminal gangs undermine border security & put lives at risk yet smuggler convictions down 30% under Tories (4/7)

BROKEN PROMISE 4: Sunak claimed everyone who arrived would be returned – Returns of failed asylum seekers are down 50% compared to last Labour government – Only 5% of Albanians who came on small boats to the UK have been returned – £400m failing Rwanda plan & no one sent (5/7)

BROKEN PROMISE 5: Sunak promised a new small boats law. But Govt hasn’t brought it into force as they know it’s unworkable One of 3 failing new Tory laws on small boats. First is now partially suspended. Second mainly not implemented. Third (Rwanda) on hold due to Tory rows (6/7

Five broken promises. Gimmicks instead of grip. Failing to stop criminal gangs undermining border security, failing to clear backlog, end hotel use, implement returns or properly manage asylum system. With a record of failure like that, Rishi Sunak should stop the… boasts (7)

Richard Adams

Following our interview with the new Ofsted chief inspector, Sir Martyn Oliver, and his announcement of a pause in inspections to allow for improved training in mental health issues, here’s a response from Prof Julia Waters, the sister of Ruth Perry, the headteacher whose death last year set off calls for urgent reforms to the way Ofsted inspects schools in England.

Ofsted badly needs a new approach from its leaders, so it is reassuring to know that the new chief inspector is starting his job with an understanding that there is a need for significant change.

I look forward to meeting him later this week to discuss the key issues that my family, and many others, feel need to be addressed.

And here is a response from Paul Whiteman, the general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers.

This announcement shows that the new chief inspector has a greater understanding of the problem. Allowing time for training is a positive signal.

Next, Sir Martyn needs to agree with the profession immediate steps that will bring sufficient confidence to allow time to develop much-needed long-term reform. I look forward discussing this with him this week.

Here is the interview with Oliver.

And here are some more of the details from the Home Office’s report this morning (see 9.19am and 9.49am) on asylum claims. It is described as an “ad hoc statistical release”, which means it is not being published as part of the routine data reporting schedule. The Home Office says it has been released to support “the prime minister’s statement of 2 January 2024” – a reference to an article he has written for the Daily Express.

• The number of initial asylum application decisions taken last year was more than three times as high as the figure for the previous year, the Home Office says. That is partly because there has been a big increase in the number of staff employed to deal with these cases. The Home Office says:

Local provisional MI [management information data] shows that, in the four weeks from 20 November to 17 December 2023 there were 20,481 initial asylum decisions made. This number of decisions compares to a total of 20,039 decisions made in the whole of 2021.

There were more than 112,138 initial asylum decisions made on asylum cases between 1 January and 28 December 2023. In the year 1 January to 31 December 2022 there were 31,766 initial decisions.

• But the number of applications considered dealt with because they have been withdrawn or considered not valid has also increased hugely, the Home Office says. Withdrawn applications are almost three times as high as they were in 2022. The Home Office says:

Of the 112,138 initial asylum decisions made between January and 28 December 2023, 35,119 were non-substantive decisions. In the year 1 January to 31 December 2022 there were 13,093 non-substantive decisions. Non-substantive decisions include withdrawn applications and administrative decisions (void and deceased).

Rajeev Syal, the Guardian’s home affairs editor, tells me:

A claim is seen as withdrawn if an applicant fails to maintain contact with the Home Office, fails to complete an asylum questionnaire properly, or fails to attend a personal interview. When changes were made to the the definition of withdrawn claims over the summer, an unnamed Home Office source told the Guardian: “This is done to basically bring the backlog down. A lot of interviews were booked to withdraw as many claims as possible (if people didn’t turn up).”

• Some 602 small boats were detected crossing the Channel in 2023, compared with 1,110 in 2022, the Home Office says. That implies crossings have almost halved. But people smugglers are using larger boats than in the past, and the number of individuals crossing the Channel on small boats last year was down by 36%.

Based upon information provided by French authorities, the number of small boats prevented from crossing the Channel by the French have increased over the last year.

The Home Office undertook 707 Organised Crime Group disruption activities between 1 October 2022 and 30 November 2023, compared to 554 between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2022. These numbers will not include additional work aimed at organised crime groups by the National Crime Agency (NCA).

The Home Office has just published the data used to justify its overnight claim about having cleared the “legacy” asylum applications backlog. The report is here.

It says that, of the 112,138 application subject to an initial decision in 2023, 67% were granted.

This refutes the suggestion repeatedly made by Suella Braverman when she was home secretary (for example, here) that most people crossing the Channel on small boats are not genuine asylum seekers.

The Home Office paper says:

Of the 112,138 initial asylum decisions, 77,019 were substantive decisions (51,469 grants and 25,550 refusals, which is a grant rate of 67%). This represents the highest annual number of substantive decisions on asylum cases made since 2002. 86,800 of these decisions were made on Legacy applications, with a further 25,338 decisions on Flow applications.

In his interviews this morning James Cleverly, the home secretary, admitted that that a pre-Christmas “joke” he made about spiking his wife’s drink with a date rape drug could have distracted from his department’s work to tackle violence against women and girls. Ben Quinn has the full story here.

Good morning and happy new year. Politics is not starting at full pelt this week – the Commons is not back until next week, and although Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer have visits scheduled for later this week, we’re not expecting to hear from them today – but James Cleverly, the home secretary, has been doing a media round, and the news is dominated by an argument about immigration policy. As it will be, no doubt, for most of the rest of 2024. Never mind; only 365 more days to go.

Cleverly is doing interviews because the Home Office says it has found a pledge by Rishi Sunak that he has actually met: clearing the backlog for “legacy” asylum applications. As Rajeev Syal explains in his overnight story, experts say this is misleading, and that in fact the backlog has not been fully cleared.

Labour is also questioning the Home Office’s claim. This is what Stephen Kinnock, the shadow immigration minister, said last night.

The asylum backlog has rocketed to 165,000 under the Tories – eight times higher than when Labour left office – and no slicing or renaming the figures can disguise that fact. Even their claims to have cleared the so-called ‘legacy backlog’ are false.

Over 4,000 claims are unresolved and a disturbing 17,000 asylum seekers have simply been ‘withdrawn’ by the Tories from this legacy backlog, with ministers seeming to have no idea where they are and whether they are reapplying or disappearing into the underground economy.

But on the Today programme, when Mishal Husain asked him why the Home Office was saying the legacy backlog target had been met when it hadn’t, Cleverly replied:

Because it has. Because it has. Our commitment was to make sure we process those 92,000 legacy claims, predating 28 June 2022. They had not been assessed. Those people needed to be accommodated, they needed to be supported financially, and the prime minister committed to processing all those applications. Every single one of those applications has been processed.

In fact, when Sunak made the commitment in the Commons in December 2022, he talked not just about processing claims, but about eliminating the backlog. “We expect to abolish the backlog of initial asylum decisions by the end of next year,” he told MPs.

Cleverly has also faced questions for the first time about the controversy generated by the date rape joke he made in private at a Christmas drinks reception in Downing Street. Asked about the comment, which led to calls for his resignation, Cleverly told Sky News that his apology was “heartfelt” and that his actions as a minister showed he took violence against women and girls very seriously. He told the programme:

It was a joke that I made and of course you know I regret it and I apologised immediately, and that apology is heartfelt.

But the point that I’ve made is that as home secretary I was the first home secretary to put forward legislation to toughen our ability to deal with spiking.

My first visit as home secretary was to an investigation team investigating violence against women and girls, when I was foreign secretary I set a target that 80% of our aid has got to demonstrably have a positive effect for women and girls. I shouldn’t have said it and I apologised immediately …

I’m sorry because it clearly caused hurt, it’s potentially distracted from the work we were doing to tackle spiking to help predominantly women who are the victims of spiking and I regret that. But I’m absolutely determined to continue the work that I’ve been doing for years.

I will post more from his interviews shortly.

There is not much on the agenda today, but at 9.30am the Home Office is publishing more figures relating to the asylum claims backlog and at 11.30am we have got a No 10 lobby briefing.

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