Canada employment saw minimal change in July with a slight decrease of 2,800 jobs, keeping the unemployment rate stable at 6.4% and paving the way for more interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.
“The key takeaway is that employment has not grown in the past two months, the jobless rate remains almost a percentage point higher than a year ago, and it has been a really challenging summer job market for students,” according to Douglas Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Canada.
“This backdrop doesn’t increase the urgency of rate cuts, but it also does nothing to dissuade them,” he was further quoted saying in a Financial Post story from August 9.
The employment rate, meanwhile, fell by 0.2 percentage points to 60.9%, continuing a downward trend observed over the past several months.
The Labour Force Survey from last month highlighted sectoral shifts as employment dropped in wholesale and retail trade (-44,000), in line with a general downward trend since August 2023.
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing also had a -15,000 drop in employment (-1.0%) in July – the first decline in those sectors since November 2023.
British Columbia’s Brenda Bailey, Minister of Jobs, Economic Development and Innovation, issued a statement on the survey’s release.
“Across Canada, people are facing big challenges due to high interest rates and slower global economic growth,” she said.
“Despite job declines across the country, B.C. continues to hold steady with 63,900 jobs gained during the past year, including the second-largest increase in private-sector employment.”
“B.C.’s unemployment rate is 5.5%, the second-lowest unemployment rate among provinces and significantly below the national average of 6.4%. B.C.’s average hourly wage is $36.59, the highest among provinces in July. Since 2017, we have had the highest GDP growth among large provinces at 16.9%.”
Employment Based On Age-Group
Employment decreased among women and men aged 55 to 64, as well as young men aged 15 to 24, while it rose among men aged 25 to 54.
It held steady, however, for women aged 15 to 24.
On a year-on-year basis, however, employment was down for both core-aged women (-1.0 percentage points to 80.5%) and core-aged men (-0.9% to 86.8%) in July.
The total hours worked increased by 1.0%, and average hourly wages saw a 5.2% year-over-year rise to $34.97.
A demographic group of particular interest was international students, among whom the employment rate continues to trend lower in July.
From May to August, the Labour Force Survey tracked students aged 15 to 24 who attended school full time in March and who intend to return to school full time in the fall.
The employment rate of returning students aged 15 to 24 was 51.3%, down 6.8 percentage points from July 2023.
In July 2024, year-on-year employment rate falls were observed for male returning students (-9.1 percentage points to 47.9%) and female returning students (-4.6 percentage points to 54.5%) (not seasonally adjusted).
Recent immigrants – who often face barriers in entering and integrating into the labour market – had a greater increase in the unemployment rate compared to people born in Canada.
Between July of this year and last year, the unemployment rate of recent immigrants (who had landed in Canada within the last five years) rose 3.1 percentage points to 12.6% (three-month moving averages, not seasonally adjusted).
The most significant change was observed for recent immigrant youth, for whom the unemployment was 22.8% in July, up by 8.6 percentage points from a year earlier.
For new immigrants in the core working age, the unemployment rate was up by 2.0 percentage points to 10.4% over the same period.
For their Canadian-born counterparts, the unemployment rate was up 0.5 percentage points to 5.6% on a year-on-year basis in July, while the rate for more established immigrants (landed in Canada more than five years earlier) was up 1.2 percentage points to 6.3%.
