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Canada Express Entry Year In Review: Occupation-Specific Draws Herald New Era

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Canada Express Entry Year In Review: Occupation-Specific Draws Herald New Era



This is not to say that all-program draws stopped in 2023. They still accounted for the vast majority of Invitations to Apply as IRCC issued the second most ITAs in a calendar year in the history of the program, at 110,266.

It was a dramatic shift through the gears compared to 2022 when just 46,538 ITAs were issued as Canada tried to reduce a processing backlog built up during the COVID-19 pandemic. This backlog still persists in many immigration categories, although not in the skilled worker class.

Still, 2023 was second only to 2021 in terms of the number of ITAs issued, and only by just over 4,000. This is more remarkable given that 2021 was the year of the record individual draw featuring 27,332 ITAs for Canadian Experience Class candidates.


ITAs Issued Each Year


Despite the high number of ITAs, IRCC officials still suspended draws for the month of November in 2023. There was never a clear explanation given for the suspension, with some speculation over whether a technical failure was to blame.

However, draws returned in December and thousands of ITAs were issued in the build up to Christmas, including four draws in a week at one stage.


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Given the high number of ITAs, it is no surprise that three of the top 10 quarters for in the history of Express Entry happened in 2023.

Indeed, the first quarter total of 37,558 invitations is the only one to come near to the two 44,000-plus quarters of 2021, during IRCC’s response to coronavirus.

Both the third and fourth quarters of 2023 also make it into the top 10, in eighth and 10th places respectively.

As Canada’s immigration targets continue to increase, it is logical that the number of ITAs will continue to rise accordingly.


Top 10 Quarters For Express Entry ITAs


The result of the introduction of occupation-specific draws was a sharp increase in the variety of draws taking place in 2023.

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Previously, Express Entry draws were almost exclusively all-program, with the odd Provincial Nominee Program and Federal Skilled Trades Program draw thrown in.

That changed during the pandemic, when Canadian Experience Class draws became the dominant category, as IRCC targeted candidates already in Canada.

But, in 2023, Canada conducted a total of nine different categories of draw with the various occupation-specific categories. The nine included a first draw targeted exclusively at Federal Skilled Worker Program candidates. FSW candidates had previously only been invited as part of all program draws.


ITAs Issued In 2023 Express Entry Draws

Key

Blue: All-program

Orange: Healthcare

Dark Blue: Skilled trades

Red: PNP

Yellow: STEM

Grey: Transport

White: FSW

Green: French speakers

Purple: Farming and food


The introduction of so many different categories of draw had an impact on the all-program draws.

It was still the dominant category, with 76,700 ITAs issued over the year.

In the early part of the year, when draws were almost exclusively all-program, Comprehensive Ranking System scores remained relatively low, in the 480s.

With the introduction of occupation-specific draws in June, the gap between all-program draws grew. Candidates who would otherwise have been selected in all-program draws were included in occupation-specific draws, in which minimum CRS scores were lower.

As a result, there was a clear pattern of lower CRS scores for all-program draws in the first six months of the year, and higher CRS scores thereafter, illustrated in the graph below.


Minimum CRS Scores For 2023 All Program Draws


Meanwhile, there were only five PNP draws in 2023, featuring 4,396 ITAs. Minimum CRS scores fluctuated between 691 and 791. Scores are generally higher for PNP draws because candidates score an extra 600 points for their provincial nomination, on top of their core profile score.

PNP draws are likely to become less frequent as the Express Entry system matures. Provinces are now conducting their own draws much more frequently, reducing the need for PNP draws at the federal level.

With occupation-specific draws taking over, PNP draws could soon become a thing of the past for Express Entry.

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Minimum CRS Scores For 2023 PNP Draws


Of all the new categories introduced in 2023, the most draws were conducted in the French-speaker category.

CRS scores ranged from 375 to 486 for the 8,700 invitations issued. Canada has a clear strategy to increase its population of French-speakers outside Quebec and it is no surprise that it was the only none-occupation category introduced in the new draw categories.


Minimum CRS Scores For 2023 French Speaker Draws


Healthcare draws featured 5,600 invitations and minimum scores ranging from 431 to 476. The lowest score of 431 came when IRCC invited 3,600 healthcare workers in an October 26 draw.

It will be important to note the pattern of CRS scores as healthcare draws to continue. The wide range of occupations featured in the category include nurses, doctors and surgeons.


Minimum CRS Scores For 2023 Healthcare Draws


There may have been only two STEM draws in 2023, but they featured 6,400 invitations.

In one draw on December 8, STEM candidates received 5,900 invitations with a minimum score of 481.

With STEM occupations in growing demand in Canada, expect draws in this category to grow with time.


Minimum CRS Scores For 2023 STEM Draws


Skilled trades occupation-specific draws, not to be confused with draws aimed at the Federal Skilled Trades Program, featured in two draws in 2023, with minimum CRS scores ranging from 388 to 425.

The draws featured 2,500 invitations. Skilled trades occupations, including in the construction industry, are in high demand in Canada, as it looks to build enough houses to address a shortage of homes for its growing immigrant population.


Minimum CRS Scores For 2023 Skilled Trades Draws


Transport occupations, specifically truck drivers, are another category in which Canada suffers severe shortages.

The two transport-focused draws in 2023 both had a CRS score of 435, with 1,670 ITAs issued.


Minimum CRS Scores For 2023 Transport Draws         


The last category of the draw to be introduced in 2023 was farming and food, or agriculture and agri-food in the IRCC language.

Two draws featured CRS scores of 354 and 386, with a total of 1,000 invitations issued.


Minimum CRS Scores For 2023 Farming and Food Draws


Express Entry in 2024

Canada’s 2024 to 2026 Immigration Levels Plan targets nearly 1.5 million newcomers over the next three years. That means Express Entry invitation numbers are only going to increase.

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The important variable in that is public opinion, with indications in 2023 that it could be turning against welcoming too many newcomers.

But the huge number of newcomers does not look like dropping any time soon. Canada’s population increases are the largest among the G7 countries and that generally means economic progress.


Canada’s 2024 to 2026 Immigration Levels Plan

   

2024

2025

2026

 

Overall Planned Permanent Resident Admissions

485,000

500,000

500,000

Economic

Federal High Skilled

110,770

117,500

117,500

 

Federal Economic Public Policies

3,000

 

Federal Business

5,000

6,000

6,000

 

Economic Pilots: Caregivers; Agri-Food Pilot; Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot; Economic Mobility Pathways Project

10,875

14,750

13,750

 

Atlantic Immigration Program

6,500

8,500

8,500

 

Provincial Nominee Program

110,000

120,000

120,000

 

Quebec Skilled Workers and Business

To be determined

To be determined

 
 

Total Economic

281,135

301,250

301,250

Family

Spouses, Partners and Children

82,000

84,000

84,000

 

Parents and Grandparents

32,000

34,000

34,000

 

Total Family

114,000

118,000

118,000

Refugees and Protected Persons

Protected Persons in Canada and Dependents Abroad

27,000

29,000

29,000

 

Resettled Refugees – Government-AssistedFootnote7

21,115

15,250

15,250

 

Resettled Refugees – Privately Sponsored

27,750

28,250

28,250

 

Resettled Refugees – Blended Visa Office-Referred

250

250

250

 

Total Refugees and Protected Persons

76,115

72,750

72,750

Humanitarian and Other

Total Humanitarian & Compassionate and Other

13,750

8,000

8,000


More invitations and more occupation-specific draws can be expected in 2024.

There is the possibility of new categories being introduced, but the likelihood is that the current ones  will continue to grow, especially the healthcare and STEM occupations.

 





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