Education

Canada’s 50-Year Population Projections Show Importance of Immigration

Published on July 1, 2024

Canada’s population projections for the next 50 years has laid bare its overriding need for the immigration of young, skilled people to bolster its workforce.

According to Statistics Canada projections released on June 24, 2024, Canada’s population could reach 63 million by 2073.

Canada’s population, estimated at 40.1 million in 2023, is expected to grow significantly by 2073 and reach, under various scenarios, between 47.1 million and 87.2 million. This shows a rapid growth in the next five decades, doubling it in a high-growth scenario.

The projections from 2023 to 2073 show growth driven primarily by immigration, with various estimates reflecting potential variations in fertility, aging, and mortality.

Projections for Canada, provinces, and territories released in 2022 showed significant population growth because of an influx of permanent and temporary immigrants. In 2022-23, Canada accepted 1.13 million immigrants, the highest number on record and almost 500,000 more than the previous year.

The StatsCan report also projects population figures for provinces and territories from 2023 to 2048 using scenarios to show changes over the years. The agency clarifies that it uses projections, including low—to high-growth scenarios, and not “predictions.”

Immigration has been a common thread throughout the growth trend since the 1990s, with natural growth—births minus deaths—playing no significant role. This is true of other countries with high GDPs.

Significant movements of people have considerable economic consequences. According to the IMF, the foreign-born labour force in America is 9% higher than at the start of 2019. Britain, Canada, and the Eurozone are around a fifth higher.

According to Statista, as of 2022, more than eight million immigrants with permanent residence lived in Canada, about 20 percent of the country’s total population.

The StatsCan projections show that Canada’s demographics will continue to evolve.

Age groups

The proportion of older adults in Canada is set to rise dramatically. By 2073, the share of individuals aged 65 and older could increase from 18.9% in 2023 to between 21.9% and 32.3%. The growth of this demographic will be especially pronounced until 2030, as the baby boomer generation ages.

The population aged 85 and older will continue to increase rapidly in the coming years and jump between 2031 and 2050 when the considerable number of baby boomers will reach this age group. The report said this rise in the two-decade period will significantly increase the need for healthcare and other services. According to the various projection scenarios, the population aged 85 and older would increase from 896,600 people in 2023 to between 3.3 million and 4.3 million, tripling in 2073.

According to all projection scenarios except the slow-aging and high-growth scenarios, the number of children aged 0-14 peaked at 34 percent in 1962 and declined to 15.4 percent in 2023.

Provinces and territories

Provincial and territorial populations will also see notable varying shifts. If trends persist, population numbers east of Ontario – Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Quebec – would continue to decline. At the same time, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia are expected to see growth.

Ontario and Quebec will remain the most populous provinces in all scenarios over the next 25 years.

The share of older adults (65 and older and 85 and older) will continue to rise in all provinces and territories. The varying population growth rates among provinces and territories could reflect aspects of regional differences, but aging will affect all regions.

Developing tailored regional policies that address specific demographic trends is crucial for balanced national growth. Research and data collection can help improve population projections’ accuracy and utility.

Implications

Canada’s population projections from 2023 to 2073 underscore significant demographic shifts with far-reaching implications. An aging workforce presents challenges for the labour market and economic growth. As a larger share of the population retires, there will be a need to attract younger, skilled workers through immigration and policies encouraging higher birth rates.

More long-term care, senior healthcare professionals, and elder-friendly infrastructure will be needed as policymakers invest in healthcare capacity and innovation to accommodate an aging population.

The report presents valuable information for policymakers on how population changes might affect economic growth, labour markets, and housing demand. It can also address the anticipated impact on healthcare, education, and other social services.

Immigration is the most effective way to counterbalance natural decrease and support economic growth; therefore, Canada can use such research to continue refining its immigration policies, focusing on attracting younger immigrants, skilled workers, and people willing to settle in less populous regions.

Policy Considerations

Population trends figures are crucial for policy planning, economic forecasting, and social services. Federal and provincial governments can develop strategies to manage demographic shifts in infrastructure investments and urban planning adjustments needed to accommodate changing populations.

In a 2023 Reuters article, the writer expressed concerns over Canada’s one-year increase in immigration and new arrivals, which he said strained public services, especially during a housing and healthcare crisis.

Addressing these challenges through strategic planning and innovative policies will be essential to ensure a sustainable future for all Canadians. As the country’s demography evolves, effective immigration management, family support, healthcare, retirement systems, and regional development will play critical roles.

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