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In the last two years, nearly 500,000 immigrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela have arrived in the United States to live and work here legally. They have come under a program known as “CHNV,” named for the nationalities of its beneficiaries. The CHNV program allows people in the United States to petition to sponsor potential beneficiaries; if approved, they are paroled into the country for two years, and allowed to apply for work permits after they arrive.

Since the program was created for Venezuela in fall 2022 (and expanded to the other three countries in January 2023), however, the future of the program – and by extension the people who have benefited from it – has been unclear.

This month, however, the Biden administration clarified: people who are in the U.S. under CHNV will not be able to use the program to stay in the U.S. for more than two years. When the two-year parole grants start expiring – as they have for the first Venezuelan beneficiaries – the government will not grant new ones.

This doesn’t mean the U.S. is kicking everyone out. Most of the people who are here under CHNV are eligible to apply for other forms of legal protection. The people most affected by the Biden administration’s decision are Nicaraguans, who are not categorically eligible for another legal status – and who may start having to decide, in January of next year, whether to leave the U.S. or remain as unauthorized immigrants.

Why The Biden Administration Had to Announce the Future of CHNV Now

The CHNV program briefly got public attention earlier this year when the federal government paused the program for a few weeks, to investigate allegations of fraud. While the Department of Homeland Security still hasn’t offered details of what the fraud concerns were and how they have been alleviated, it restarted processing applications after a brief pause, claiming new safeguards were in place.

However, the decision not to allow re-parole under CHNV didn’t necessarily have anything to do with fraud concerns – or with the upcoming U.S. elections. The history of the program required the Biden administration to make a decision, and announce it, this month.

On paper, someone who comes to the United States under CHNV is allowed to remain for two years – that’s how long their parole grant is valid for. That meant that the first 400 or so Venezuelans allowed into the U.S. under the program, who arrived in October 2022, might start losing their parole protections in October 2024 – in the unlikely event they hadn’t already transitioned to another form of legal status.

However, other groups who’ve been granted parole by the Biden administration – namely, Ukrainians fleeing war and Afghans fleeing the Taliban after the U.S. evacuation – have been allowed to apply for a renewal of their parole grants (technically, a re-parole) before they expire, so that they can stay in the U.S. for another couple of years.

This makes those programs more like Temporary Protected Status – a form of legal status that is only valid for a couple of years at a time, but which, under most presidents, keeps getting extended, so that beneficiaries are protected by it indefinitely – than like, say, a student visa that is valid only for a few years.

The Biden administration had not said that CHNV parole would be renewable. But it hadn’t explicitly said that it wouldn’t be, either. As a result, beneficiaries genuinely didn’t know whether they would end up being allowed to stay in the United States under CHNV or not.

By telling them they will not be able to renew their parole under CHNV, the Biden administration is resolving that question for them.

However, the Venezuelans who are in danger of losing their parole this month have other options – indeed, many of them likely have another form of legal status and were no longer relying on the temporary parole grant. And most other beneficiaries also have options. So this announcement, for them, is less an indication that they have to start making plans to return to their home countries, than that they have to start putting together other applications.

What Options CHNV Beneficiaries Have

Whether CHNV beneficiaries can stay in the U.S. depends both on their nationality and on when they arrived here.

Cubans are allowed to apply for green cards after a year in the United States under the Cuban Adjustment Act. Therefore, any Cuban who is otherwise eligible for a green card didn’t need to rely on their CHNV parole for the full two years anyway. As a result, very few Cubans are likely to be affected by the absence of re-parole – as long as they apply for a green card.

Haitians were redesignated for Temporary Protected Status for a period of 18 months as of June 2024. That means that the 172,820 Haitians who had arrived in the U.S. under CHNV by that point are allowed to apply for TPS and likely remain through at least February 2026. Haitians who arrived after that date under CHNV can’t apply for TPS now, but if TPS is redesignated for Haiti in February 2026, they’ll be able to apply then. Since they wouldn’t start losing their parole until June 2026 (two years after their arrival), that will give them a few months.

Venezuelans were designated for Temporary Protected Status for 18 months as of July 31, 2023. That means that the 53,580 Venezuelans who had arrived in the U.S. under CHNV at that point are allowed to apply for TPS and remain through April 2025. Haitians who arrived after that date under CHNV can’t apply for TPS now, but if TPS is redesigned for Venezuela in April 2025, they’ll be able to apply then. Since they wouldn’t start losing their parole until August 2025 (two years after their arrival), that will give them a few months.

Nicaraguans don’t have these options. In theory, they are allowed to apply for asylum, if they believe they qualify. However, nothing in the CHNV application required people to demonstrate they would qualify for asylum, so there is little reason to believe Nicaraguan beneficiaries are particularly likely to be eligible – and immigration courts are granting asylum to only 40% of applicants. As a result, Nicaraguans are the most vulnerable to the decision. In January 2025, a few hundred Nicaraguans will start losing parole, and will have to decide whether to go back or stay in the U.S. as unauthorized immigrants – exactly the fate that the CHNV program was designed to help them avoid.