Holthe Immigration Law | TOP 6 Key takeaways from Canada’s new Strategy to Expand Transitions to Permanent Residency

Yes, there is a lot of fluff in the Strategy to Expand Transitions to Permanent Residence and it’s mostly a rehashing of what has already been said. Yes, for the most part, the Minister intends to either expand, or adjust the existing pathways for temporary foreign workers and international student graduates seeking pathways to PR in Canada. No, we don’t know for sure if he will be creating a new program for PGWP holders, similar to the 2021 TR to PR Pathway, or whether he will simply adjust the existing CRS criteria of Express Entry.

However, if you take the time to read carefully, …and read between the lines, you will find there are a few things you had better pay close attention to because…it wasn’t all fluff!

1. Work experience in key sectors will be increasingly important

It is hard to believe that in the first quarter of 2022, Canadian employers were actively seeking to fill 957,500 vacant positions with over 58% of them requiring high school education or less. Labor shortages in Canada are only going to get worse. The Minister clearly outlined the industries on his hit list.

If you have work experience that falls into one of the following industries, you are going to have a greater likelihood of being included in one of the Express Entry NOC Targeted Draws in the Spring:

1. health

2. hospitality

3. transportation

4. trades and resources

5. IT

6. engineering

7. agri-food

8. agriculture

9. construction

10. professional services

11. scientific and technical services

2. Job offers from Canadian employers will be much more plentiful and essential

As the Canadian economy continues to heat up, and unemployment levels continue to drop, the opportunities to land a coveted job offer from a Canadian employer will never be better in the coming months and years. These job offers will be more readily available in the targeted industries identified in #1. There is a specific reason the Minister identified these industries. This is where labor shortages are projected for not only the immediate needs of Canadian employers, but the medium-to-long-term economic priorities of the country as well.

 One thing is clear from the Minister’s report, those seeking to immigrate to Canada without some form of Canadian work experience are going to have a steep hill to climb. IRCC has made it very clear that priority will be given to selecting new PRs from the ranks of temporary residents (primarily foreign workers). The report highlights that “Immigrants with previous temporary Canadian work experience generally have better labor market integration, and are unlikely to experience the same degree of difficulty with the transferability of their human capital.”

 What does this mean for aspiring Express Entry applicants? Gone are the days when human capital alone will be enough to secure an ITA. The report confirms that if you want to immigrate to Canada, you pretty much have two options. 1) study in Canada, obtain a PGWP, and then apply for PR; or 2) secure a job offer from a Canadian employer, obtain a work permit, and after gaining Canadian work experience, apply for PR.

 However, all is not lost for the FSW applicant with no Canadian experience. Permanent LMIA-based job offers and French language ability can level the playing field somewhat. Further, it is still possible for outland FSW applicants to win the lottery if future Express Entry Targeted Draws land on a NOC code for which the candidate has experience in the targeted industry.

3. Express Entry is opening its doors to low-skilled work experience in Canada

In the past, skilled workers (Skill Level 0, A, and B) were the only type of worker truly valued within the Federal Economic PR programs. Unless low and semi-skilled workers could find a pathway through the various PNP programs, they were simply left out in the dark….that is, until the pandemic arrived.

 The pandemic caused a massive shift in focus for IRCC. Attention has now shifted to the actual needs of our labour market with less emphasis on arbitrary skill level. The creation of the TR to PR Pathway in 2021 was just the beginning of what is to come. The Minister makes it clear that the next version of Express Entry (likely to come in the Spring of 2023) will include more opportunities for workers “at all skill levels”. He is not talking about another TR to PR Pathway (although this could still be a possibility), he is specifically addressing changes to the Express Entry selection process.

 This should give hope to some low-skill workers in Canada, but remember…..the Minister is likely referring to the reclassification of some occupations within the new TEER System (NOC 2021) set to launch in November of this year. And don’t forget that priority will still be placed on the industries in #1.

4. Rural Canada is on the rise

Over the past few years, we have seen the annual levels plans for Economic Immigration rise to numbers never seen before. When it comes to increased numbers, the winners have been the PNPs, Rural communities, and now Municipalities. IRCC recognizes that individual provinces, communities, and municipalities are best suited to determine their respective labor needs. As such, programs such as the Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot Program are likely to see the “Pilot” label dropped with them becoming permanent programs as occurred recently with the Atlantic Immigration Program.

 Nestled within the Minister’s plan is once again a reference to a new Municipal Nominee Program which is currently in development. The program was originally announced in 2019. It is uncertain to what extent this program will really differ from the RNIP and various PNP-based rural and community programs. However, one message is clear… candidates willing to settle outside the major metropolitan centers in Canada will have greater chances for PR than those choosing to live in the larger centers.  

5. French language ability has never been more important

To fully appreciate the importance of this statement, all you have to do is look at the impact of French language ability on the Express Entry Draws. An extra 50 or more CRS bonus points for French language ability has been a game changer for FSW candidates outside of Canada looking to break into the highly competitive “No Program Specified” draws. So, if you have even the slightest ability to communicate in French…start brushing up. The sooner your French improves, the sooner you just might book your ticket to Canada.

 For some time now, we have known that IRCC is determined to meet its 4.4% French-speaking target by 2023. In order to meet this goal, Francophone minority communities outside of Quebec are now clearly on the radar. If you have French language ability and are exploring options for study or work in Canada, Quebec does not need to be your first option. In fact, you may find that you have more opportunities for PR as a French speaker, outside of Quebec because of IRCCs mandate.

6. International students must be strategic about where they are studying in Canada

Tucked away quietly within the report was an acknowledgment of a lack of diversity within the ranks of our international student populations.  IRCC admitted that they are looking for ways to diversify source countries for the International Student Program. This is code for… we are going to start approving fewer study permits from India and China and more from other countries.

 As such, more than ever before, students need to be strategic with their school selection. Don’t just go to whatever school is the cheapest and easiest to gain admission. And for goodness’ sake, do not study in one-year programs unless you intend to stack that program with a second one-year program. You need two years of study to maximize your PGWP to three years.

 Finally, pay attention to “where” your school is located and “what” you are choosing to study. IRCC has made it clear that they want students to choose programs of study outside of the major urban centers. I can’t help but think that IRCC will bake this ingredient into their advanced analytics when assessing study permit applications. Obviously, there are other factors at play; however, if IRCC says they are going to “incentivize students to look beyond major urban centers when choosing a program of study”, I listen. You should listen too.

When my clients ask me for advice on where they should study in Canada, I place significant emphasis on geography. With the volatility in PR programs, I want my clients to have the greatest number of PR options available to them when choosing a school. With over 49% of international students headed to Ontario, guess where I advise my client not to go? A careful analysis of the future PR options in a potential province of destination can go a long way to avoiding heartache when trying to compete with thousands of other students for limited PNP spots. Further, programs like the Atlantic Immigration Program can add another layer of incentive in choosing to study in Atlantic Canada versus the most common destinations of Ontario, BC, and Quebec.

 Pretty much every PNP tends to have some form of incentive baked into their programs for students who choose to study in their province and stick around as permanent residents. The key for you is to determine which provinces have the best programs and which have the least number of grads competing for those positions following completion of studies and any work experience requirements.  

Further, when choosing a program, you must pay attention to the industry in which your program is situated. If you want to increase your chances of securing PR in Canada, you would be well advised to choose a program within one of the IRCC priority industries set out in #1. Rather than simply choosing a program in business, management or public administration, broaden your horizons and try to find a program that not only makes sense for the education plan in your study permit application, but a program that also aligns with where the jobs can be found in Canada following graduation.