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Sunak rebuked by UK’s statistics watchdog for making misleading claim about government debt – UK politics live | Politics
Sunak rebuked by UK’s statistics watchdog for making misleading claim about government debt falling
Rishi Sunak has been rebuked by the UK’s statistics watchdog for making misleading claims about his record on bringing down government debt.
Sunak has made reducing the national debt one of his five priorities, and in a video posted on X after the autumn statement he said “debt is falling”. Later in November he told MPs at PMQs “we have indeed reduced debt”.
Sarah Olney, the Lib Dem’s Treasury spokesperson, wrote to the UK Statistics Authority to ask if there was any justification for what Sunak was saying and today, in a response, the authority’s chair, Sir Robert Chote, said Sunak’s words were misleading.
Chote said No 10 tried to justify Sunak’s “is falling” comment by saying he was referring to what was forecast to happen in 2028. Chote explained:
In this instance, the prime minister’s office informed us that both claims referred to the fact that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was forecasting that the underlying measure of net debt (excluding the Bank) would be falling as a proportion of GDP (although not in cash terms) in the final year of its five-year forecast, in line with the government’s target …
The average person in the street would probably not have interpreted the prime minister’s claims in the way that his office explained them to us and would likely have assumed that he was claiming that debt was already falling or that the government’s policy decisions had lowered it at the fiscal events – neither of which is the case. This has clearly been a source of confusion and may have undermined trust in the government’s use of statistics and quantitative analysis in this area.
Members of the public cannot be expected to understand the minutiae of public finance statistics and the precise combination of definitional choices that might need to be made for a particular claim to be true. So, when speaking about the public finances and making claims of this sort, intelligent transparency demands that ministers, other senior politicians, departments and political parties ask themselves how someone with an interest but little specialist knowledge is likely to interpret a particular claim and to explain themselves clearly if they choose to depart significantly from that in definitional terms. When a claim is made in abbreviated form, they should certainly be ready to explain the precise basis for their claim when approached and asked to do so after the event.
Commenting on the letter, Olney said:
Rishi Sunak knows he has no good story to tell on the UK economy so he has resorted to making one up. The least this no-growth prime minister could do is be honest about it with the British public.
Instead, he has reached for the Boris Johnson playbook and is undermining trust in politics. This is desperate stuff from a desperate Prime Minister and it is right that he has been called out on it.
Key events
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Sunak rebuked by UK’s statistics watchdog for making misleading claim about government debt falling
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Welsh government warns of ‘toughest financial situation since devolution’ as draft budget published including many cuts
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Scottish government publishes figures showing its tax policies progressive, and strong public support for redistribution
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Scottish government to raise £1.5bn by income tax rises for top earners, including new band and top rate rising to 48%
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Sunak dismisses concerns about Brexit’s impact on tourism and creative sectors
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Sunak defends decision to downgrade status of minister for disabled people, saying what counts is work being done
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Sunak told by public accounts committee chair he is wrong to claim Rwanda costings can be held back on commercial grounds
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Sunak refuses to say when he expects to ‘stop the boats’, and whether airlines have agreed to take flights to Rwanda
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Sunak says too many civilians dying in Gaza, but says responsibility for that lies with Hamas, not Israel
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Sunak says ‘sustainable ceasefire’ he wants in Gaza can’t happen while hostages still being held
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Sunak suggests he does not see case for new mechanism being set up to allow MPs to regularly question Lord Cameron
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Rishi Sunak questioned by Commons liaison committee
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Gove says government will achieve its 300,000 per year housebuilding target when interest rates back to normal
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Chris Heaton-Harris raises financial offer to Northern Ireland to revive power sharing at Stormont to £3.3bn
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Liz Truss claims new trans guidance does not protect children, and calls for de facto ban on social transitioning by under-18s
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Richard Adams
Many school and college leaders in England are expressing relief that the government has finally published its draft transgender guidance, promised since 2018. But there is also criticism of both the timing, after term has ended for many schools, and the content.
Paul Barber, director of the Catholic Education Service, which supports more than 2,000 Catholic schools in England, said:
While some clarity from the government is welcome, Catholic schools have been responding to pupils over this issue for many years, on a case-by-case basis, with sensitivity and understanding that each individual’s needs vary. Catholic education focuses on the God-given dignity of each individual, regardless of what gender they are. We will be participating in the consultation in due course.
Leora Cruddas, chief executive of the Confederation of School Trusts that represents many academies, said:
The contents of this consultation will need to be considered carefully. It is a sensitive area, and one where legal opinion is sometimes contested. Given this, we will be seeking appropriate legal advice in order to understand the legal position of schools and trusts.
We have repeatedly asked the Department for Education not to publish major documents and consultations at the end of term and during holidays, which can add significant workload to school leaders and cause unnecessary confusion for staff and families.
Welsh government warns of ‘toughest financial situation since devolution’ as draft budget published including many cuts
Steven Morris
Wide-ranging cuts to public services in areas from policing to flood risk management, culture and sport have been announced by the Labour-led Welsh government as it attempts to shore up the NHS and support local councils.
Its draft budget, which was published today, also includes plans to reduce business rate relief for pubs, restaurants and shops, which means many will be facing rises in bills from April.
In addition, the budget flags up the possibility of increases in the cost of NHS dental care, university tuition fees and home care for the elderly and says that rail fares will have to rise.
Finance minister Rebecca Evans said the protection of the NHS and frontline local council services such as schools and social care was at the heart of the 2024/25 draft budget.
She said there would be an extra £450m for the NHS and the core local government settlement will increase by 3.1% but she warned that even with these rises, health boards and councils faced a “very difficult” year.
The Welsh government says that as a result of high inflation, Wales’ overall budget is worth £1.3bn less in real terms than when it was set in 2021 and the settlement, which largely comes from the UK government in the form of a block grant, is not sufficient enough to respond to the extreme pressures that public services, businesses and people are facing.
Evans said:
We have had to take some really difficult decisions to radically redesign our spending plans to focus funding on the services which matter most to the people of Wales. This is the toughest financial situation Wales has faced since the start of devolution. We have been presented with the most stark and painful budget choices in the devolution era.
Evans said the government will be carefully examining whether charges for NHS dental care, tuition fees and domiciliary care need to be raised but said there would be a consultation on this if the government decided increases were needed.
The biggest hits in the £23bn budget come in the rural affairs and climate change departments. The latter includes transport, housing and Natural Resources Wales.
The leader of the Lib Dems in Wales, Jane Dodds, said:
Huge parts of Wales are still being left behind with this budget, in particular rural Wales. We need more investment in our rural areas and more support for our farmers.
Andrew RT Davies, the leader of the Welsh Conservatives, criticised the Welsh government for blaming Westminster for its problems. He said: “Labour ministers have run Wales for 24 years, failing to reform public services and deliver results for the people of Wales.” He claimed “pet projects” like the wide-ranging 20mph speed limit in Wales was leading to cuts in areas such as rural affairs.
Cuts include smoking and obesity campaigns and plans to increase funding for mental health service has been shelved. The government has “reprioritised” £8.5m from flood risk management and water policy and says it will “carefully monitor the impacts to our flood risk management preparedness and response.”
It has taken the “difficult decision to reprioritise £16m of funding from within culture sport and tourism.” It is also “reprioritising” £7.5m from the budget for police community support officers adding: “Our policing partners will need to reshape their workforce.” It says that Transport for Wales will need to increase rail fares.
Business rate relief for pubs, shops and restaurants will be reduced from 75% to 40%. The Welsh government said the discount, which dates back to the pandemic, was never intended to continue indefinitely.
Scottish government publishes figures showing its tax policies progressive, and strong public support for redistribution
The Scottish government has published all its budget documentation here.
This chart, from this document, sets out the new tax rates.
These two charts, from this document, show the distributional impact on Scottish households, from benefits received and tax paid, in 2024-25 compared to households in the rest of the UK, where different tax and benefit policies apply. The top chart shows the differences as a percentage of household income, and the bottom one shows the differences in cash terms. Both chart show the Scottish-only policies are progressive, because the rich are paying more.
The Scottish government has published polling to support its policies (which is not something the UK government does to justify a budget). This chart shows that in Scotland there is strong support for a redistributive tax system – although support for this principle has fallen considerably over the past year.
Scottish government to raise £1.5bn by income tax rises for top earners, including new band and top rate rising to 48%
A new tax band of 45p in the pound will be created in Scotland, Shona Robison, the deputy first minister and finance secretary has announced. PA Media says:
Robison said in her budget statement at Holyrood that the “advanced” band will apply to those earning between £75,000 and £125,140.
The top rate of tax, levied against those earning above this figure, will rise by 1% next year to 48p in the pound.
In other areas of tax, the three lowest rates will see no increase to their rates while the starter and basic rate bands will increase by the level of inflation.
The changes will bring in another £1.5bn to Scotland’s finances next year, Robison said.
She also said the Scottish government would fully fund its proposed council tax freeze, providing local government with the equivalent of a 5% rise.
Robison told MSPs the Office for Budget Responsibility projection for inflation next year was 3%, but she wanted to “go further than that”.
She said: “That’s why I will fund an above-inflation 5% council tax freeze – delivering over £140m of additional investment for local services.
“Combined with the other support being provided to local government, this will increase their overall funding by 6% since the last budget, taking local government funding to a new record high of over £14bn.”
Councils will be provided with £1.5m to wipe out school meal debt incurred by pupils across Scotland.
“Due to Westminster mismanagement of our economy, too many households are worrying about debt,” Robison said.
“With our limited powers there is only so much we can do. However, where we can step in, we will.
“That is why I am pleased to confirm we will provide local authorities with £1.5m to cancel school meal debt, removing a worry hanging over families up and down the country who are struggling to make ends meet.”
The introduction of the new band will mean Scotland will have six rates for income tax. In the rest of the UK, three rates apply. The Scottish system is more progressive.
When Michael Gove said during his Q&A earlier that he hoped the inquiry into Michelle Mone “results in a case being brought”, he mis-spoke, an aide has said. (See 12.26pm.) What Gove meant was that he hoped the inquiry concludes soon, we’re told.
Steve Brine (Con), chair of the health committee, asks about the junior doctors’ strike.
Sunak says the junior doctors are the only group of NHS workers who have not settled.
And they already had the largest pay increase of any group, he says.
Q: When will we see the dental recovery plan?
Sunak says the plan is being worked on.
Q: Will it come early in the new year?
Sunak won’t say.
And that’s it. Unusually, the session has ended bang on time.
Iain Stewart (Con), chair of the transport committee, aks about the decision to scrap phase two of HS2.
Q: Given that the west coast mainline will soon be at capacity, what else is the government doing to address the rail capacity in the region?
Sunak says government investments are increasing capacity.
Q: There will be a bottleneck between Birmingham and Manchester. The Network North programme will not address this. Will you consider other options?
Sunak says phase one of HS2 will expand capacity.
Sunak dismisses concerns about Brexit’s impact on tourism and creative sectors
Caroline Dinenage (Con), chair of the culture committee, goes next.
Q: The tourist sector says the end of tax-free shopping is harming it. Will that be reviewed?
Sunak says he will not comment on tax policy. But he knows from his time as chancellor that there are different views on this policy.
Q: I don’t remember Brexit campaigners saying it was going to make tourism less competitive?
Sunak says he does not accept that. The UK is still an attractive country to visit, he says. And he says the UK’s visa regime is easier for people from, for example Asia, to use than most European countries’.
Q: Brexit has also been bad for Britons touring on the continent. And it has been bad for the haulage industry too.
Sunak says the creative industries are booming. The UK is outpacing the rest of Europe in this sector. He is hosting a reception for this sector this evening, he says.
Q: Does the government really understand the value of theatres. The National Theatre exports globally. Around 17.5 million people a year are reached. But there are operating despite under-investment in their infrastructure.
Sunak says he has spoken at the National Theatre. He insists he is committed to the sector. And it is it third largest recipient of Arts Council funding, he says.
Sunak defends decision to downgrade status of minister for disabled people, saying what counts is work being done
Q: Some 350m hours of unpaid care are done every year, mostly by women. Is it right to accept the system would accept without them.
Sunak does not contest that. He pays tribute to the work unpaid carers do.
Q: Mims Davies is the right person to be minister for disabled people. But her predecessor was a minister of state. Davies is a more junior minister. Shouldn’t she be upgraded?
Sunak says what matters is the work that the minister is doing. He cites some of the things the government is doing, including initiatives he pushed when he was a local government minister (such as increasing access to toilets for disabled people).
Q: The disability sector is very disappointed by this.
Sunak repeats his point, claiming the government is doing an enormous amount for disabled people.
Caroline Nokes (Con), the chair of the women and equalities committee, goes next.
Q: The flee fund, which helps women escaping a violent partner, is capped at £300,000. Is that enough?
Sunak says this is a pilot. He implies it is subject to review.
Q: Shouldn’t the local housing allowance be uprated annually? It was frozen for four years?
Sunak says there are different ways of paying benefits. He says benefits are being uprated in line with a high inflation figure, even though inflation will be lower last year.
Q: The household support fund allows councils to provide a safety net for families. Do you accept there is a very strong case for extending that into the next financial year?
Sunak says it would not be right to comment on the budget. But this was introduced as an emergency measure. It was not a permanent feature of the system.
He makes the point again about benefits rising by a level higher than inflation.
Timms points out that last year it was happening the other way round.
Sunak makes the point that people are getting significant financial support.
Back at the liaison committee, Stephen Timms (Lab), the chair of the work and pensions committee, asks if Sunak expects food bank use to be falling by the time of the election.
Sunak says inflation has made a difference. But he claims he is genuinely confident that government policies will, over time, reduce food bank usage.