TOP 7 Insights for the 2023 Category-based Draws

• skilled trades,

• health,

• science,

• technology,

• engineering, and

• mathematics.

As I previously alluded to in “My TOP 6 List of Key Take-aways from the Minister’s Report: Strategy to Expand Transitions to Permanent Residency”, international students must be strategic in how they choose their programs of study. It may no longer be enough to simply enroll and graduate from any DLI in Canada with a PGWP option. Instead, students must look for programs within the in-demand targeted sectors and ones for which labour shortages are a reality now and projected to be so in the next few years.

Let me share a little nugget of insight from the consultation instructions that further emphasizes how important education in key sectors can be for international students:

In your responses to this consultation, you may wish to address issues such as…whether education and/or Canadian work experience must be recent, whether international students with limited to no Canadian work experience should be considered for eligibility…

This statement suggests that the TR to PR Pathway of 2021 may not be dead after all. Over the years, I have found that when IRCC asks for feedback on a proposed program or policy, it is often a simple formality and they are already well on their way to rolling things out. However, the reason this comment is so intriguing to me is that the consultation is directed toward the Express Entry program which specifically requires a minimum of one year of skilled work experience for entry. So, it is highly likely that IRCC is considering a resurrection of the TR to PR Pathway in some form so as to fast-track international grads to PR with education alone, and possibly no work experience, in key sectors suffering acute labour shortages. IRCC has already implemented aggressive policies to allow some international students to work full-time during their studies, so a resurgence of a program similar to the TR to PR Pathway would come as no surprise.

4. FSW candidates may have a shot despite low CRS scores

In recent days, IRCC surprised us with a never before FSW-Only Draw on February 2, 2023. Given the large numbers of CEC candidates languishing in the Express Entry pool, this came as quite a shock to everyone. However, the CRS score for the lowest-ranked candidate remained very high at 489. So what does the future hold for FSW candidates with low CRS scores? Simply put, the new categories-based draws could open up a brand new opportunity for candidates with work experience in key sectors and lower CRS scores. Yes, much speculation has occurred about these occupation-specific draws for the past eight months. However, few people understand what a game changer this could be for those that have languished in the Express Entry pool for years with little hope of securing an ITA because of the astronomically high rounds of invitations.

Based on the Minister’s instructions to stakeholders in the January 2023 consultation, we know that IRCC fully intends to prioritize skilled workers and international students with relevant work experience in key sectors in Canadian. However, we must not discount the fact that in-demand occupations are “in-demand” for a reason. It is because there are insufficient workers in the labour force, currently in Canada, to fill all of the necessary jobs now available and into the future. Essentially, even with the hundreds of thousands of foreign workers currently in Canada, there will still be a need for FSW candidates with foreign work experience in in-demand occupations. So it may be possible for an FSW candidate with foreign healthcare experience to be granted an ITA despite having human capital substantially lower than the current CRS trends for FSW candidates.

The Minister has the ability to restrict rounds of invitations to a particular industry or in-demand NOC, or he could decide to leave the categories as they are, but instead modify the CRS criteria to grant additional CRS points for declared work experience in the same industries or NOC codes identified on his chosen list. The powers granted to the Minister under Bill C-19 are very broad leaving him with little restraint on the manner in which those powers are exercised.

One final thought regarding the competition for international labour…Canada is not the only country experiencing skill shortages in some industries. Where global labour market shortages are most critical, the hunt for skilled workers becomes a frenzy. It is possible that a day could be reached when IRCC completely drains the pool of candidates having experience in specific occupations. If that happens, overall CRS scores would become virtually irrelevant. We could see a recurrence of what happened with Draw #176 on Feb 13, 2021 when IRCC effectively extended an ITA to every CEC candidate within the Express Entry Pool, with the lowest rank candidate having a CRS score of 75.

So the key takeaway for FSW candidates is that regardless of CRS score, and provided you are eligible under the FSW program, create a profile in the Express Entry pool and keep it active at all times. One day you may just open your email inbox to find an early Christmas present from IRCC.

5. Parlez-vous français?

In the consultation instructions, IRCC acknowledged that current levels of Francophone admissions remain insufficient to counter the demographic decline of Francophone speakers in minority communities outside the Province of Quebec. As such, Canada is actively looking for ways to attract more French speakers and has not ruled out doing targeted draws inviting candidates with a combination of proficiency in French language and experience within the in-demand sectors or occupations. It could even be possible for IRCC to hold a Francophone-only Express Entry draw where French speaking candidates with the desired language ability could be included in a targeted draw all their own.

Interestingly, IRCC shared the following short list of specific occupations that have experienced acute labour shortages where the ability to speak French was a critical component.

If you’re working in, or have work experience in one of these occupations and don’t know French yet – please, don’t waste your time! Enroll in French language classes and start working on your French. It is clear that now, and long into the future, French language proficiency will be a decisive factor in whether individuals with lower human capital will be successful.

Also, note that IRCC specifically addressed the widespread difficulties recruiting bilingual workers in rural and remote areas. In simple terms, you have a better shot if you’re destined to a typically non-French speaking community (outside of Quebec). If you are French-speaking, consider looking for job opportunities in small touristic communities in English-speaking provinces. The ability to speak English and French can be a game changer. With work experience in service industries and a strong French and English language foundation, you can not only increase your chances of getting an ITA, but may also be able to secure an LMIA-based job offer from one of these employers which can give you a massive leg up on your competition.

6. Look for opportunities in Rural Canada 

I have said this before, and I will say it again, attracting more people to rural Canada is one of IRCC’s top priorities. There are a number of provincial programs in place that allow pathways to Permanent Residence for candidates who are willing to work and settle in rural or northern communities. However, there is nothing stopping the Minister from providing incentives to candidates currently living in, or destined for, rural communities in Canada. These incentives can come through adjustments to CRS criteria for CEC candidates who are currently working in rural Canada, or specifically targeting a combination of skill shortages and desired destination of residence in Canada in a targeted draw.

Popular and overpopulated destinations such as Vancouver and Toronto are very competitive and have oversaturated labour markets. Instead, by pursuing work in rural Canada, candidates can maximize their chances for PR because there may be multiple pathways available in addition to Express Entry.

7. Be strategic and flexible

The days of high CRS scores being enough alone to guarantee an ITA are coming to an end. With the new era of targeted draws just about upon us, candidates must be strategic, persistent, and ready to adapt their strategy in order to get an ITA. When it comes to immigrating to Canada, you have to start planning early. Candidates who build out their strategy years in advance will be far more likely to punch their ticket to Canada, than those who treat immigrating to Canada as a backup plan or an afterthought.

For some, learning French may be absolutely critical to securing an ITA. For others, switching career paths early on to study, or gain work experience in one of the in-demand industries, could do the trick. But for most candidates, they must be flexible and willing to adapt. Maybe it will require them to move to a rural community and take a job in a new industry. But regardless of the options available, there is no one-size-fits-all plan. Yes, if you tailor your strategic plan around the insights I’ve shared, you are going to be leaps and bounds ahead of other Express Entry candidates.

The ideal Express Entry candidate in a strategic draw world

During the many Express Entry consultations I have with clients all over the world, a common question I am asked is to identify what an ideal Express Entry candidate would look like. In today’s looming strategic draw world, my ideal candidate would have the following characteristics:

1. Minimum of three years of work experience in a targeted industry outside Canada OR one year in Canada in a rural community

2. Completion of a Master’s Program outside Canada OR a minimum two-year program of study in Canada, in a targeted industry

3. Bilingual in English and French at a minimum CLB level 9

4. In-Demand Job offer from a Canadian Employer in a rural community

5. Close to 29 years of age

Never before has Express Entry been more competitive. Don’t fall into the trap of following what everyone else was doing last year or even last month. The game has changed. Instead, separate yourself from the crowd and utilize the information I have shared to chart your own unique path to realizing your dream of Canadian PR.

If you are wondering if Express Entry is right for you, and how to go about building a strategic plan that maximizes your chances of success, the immigration lawyers at Holthe Immigration Law are here to help. Join the thousands of other people that have benefitted from the advice and guidance we provided in making their dream a reality.