When is an asylum backlog not a backlog? When Rishi Sunak says he has ‘cleared it’ | Diane Taylor

According to the triumphant announcement from the Home Office, Rishi Sunak has done it! He’s cleared the asylum backlog – or at least the part of it he promised to clear by 31 December. “The prime minister’s commitment of clearing the legacy asylum backlog has been delivered with 112,000 asylum claims being processed in the past year,” a Home Office press release declares. The celebratory tone continues with a roll call of other notable immigration successes.

But it is difficult to square the government’s upbeat new year narrative with the gloomy dispatches from immigration lawyers, human rights campaigners and asylum seekers themselves about the state of immigration in general and asylum in particular. With a general election looming, the government knows that this is a key policy area where it needs to soothe a querulous electorate.

There is a hefty dose of spin in this latest announcement. On the negative side of the Home Office balance sheet there has been a doubling of suicides among asylum seekers in the past four years, plummeting mental health and increasing desperation among those banished to military bases or the Bibby Stockholm barge, and continuing delays for those stuck in the part of the asylum backlog the Home Office hasn’t set any target to clear. Tens of thousands remain in limbo. Their fate is uncertain and the threat of being forcibly removed to Rwanda hangs over all of them. These things are absent from the new announcement.

And not all the things that are included in the shopping list of successes withstand scrutiny.

There were 92,000 cases in the part of the asylum backlog Sunak et al promised to clear – asylum claims made before 28 June 2022. The 112,000 claims that have been processed can be broken down into 86,800 legacy cases and 25,338 newer “flow” applications. Meanwhile 4,500 cases described by the Home Office as “complex” in the part of the backlog they promised to clear remain unresolved. And among the decisions that have been made are some “shocking” refusals of asylum claims that immigration lawyers consider to be strong. For these “sorted out” cases, the can will be kicked down the road as lawyers appeal against the Home Office refusals in the immigration tribunal. There has also been an increase in cases categorised as “withdrawn” by the Home Office, although some involve asylum seekers keen to pursue their claims. In the figures announced today, of the 112,138 cases processed in 2023, 35,119 were deemed “non-substantive”, which includes withdrawn applications and those declared void or discontinued because the applicant had died.

It is not known exactly how many refused cases will go to appeal but the latest figures for the first tier of the immigration tribunal show a 20% increase in these outstanding appeals, which now stand at 31,000. The immigration barrister Iain Palmer tweeted that some of the “rushed out” asylum refusal decisions he has seen recently are the worst in 25 years.

A sentence in the Home Office statement suggests that 24,000 people have been removed after raids on people working illegally. “Illegal working visits up 68 per cent, with more than 24,000 who have no right to be in the UK removed.” In fact, according to the government’s own data for the year ending September 2023, that figure relates to all removals, with the vast majority – 17,301 – leaving the country voluntarily with just 5,506 enforced returns.

The government’s pledge to clear the asylum backlog is closely linked to its pledge to stop the boats, as many who claim asylum arrive in small boats. Along with the reduction in the number of people crossing the Channel in small boats, there has also been a reduction in the number of dinghies – by 46%. The government says this demonstrates “the success of operations to disrupt the supply of boats and engines”. Yet the government’s own daily Channel crossings figures show that the average number of people in each boat has increased over the last couple of years, from 25-30 per vessel to 50-60, meaning that fewer dinghies are required to transport similar numbers of people.

The Home Office is particularly keen to take a tough stance against Albanians who claim asylum, even though many of these claims are determined to be well founded. In 2021 and 2022 almost half of initial decisions made by the Home Office on Albanian asylum claims were positive.

The new statement highlights that 5,500 Albanians were deported in 2023, including some who arrived on small boats who were removed within 48 hours. However, according to data provided a few weeks ago to the home affairs select committee by Sir Matthew Rycroft, permanent secretary at the Home Office, since 2020 only 762 Albanians who arrived on small boats have been removed, with 531 of them returned between January and June 2023. The majority of Albanian removals in 2023 were not small boat arrivals.

While statistics can always be moulded to perform any manner of somersaults for politicians of all hues, small boat crossings have indeed reduced by more than a third in 2023. But according to Lucy Moreton of the Immigration Services Union, the significant reduction in recent weeks is likely to be because of something that gives the government less to boast about than its claims that its tough policies are bearing fruit. This factor is beyond the reach of spin doctors – it’s the rubbish weather in recent months. Storms and gales “stop the boats” more effectively than any amount of money poured into French enforcement efforts on the beaches of northern France. Moreton has predicted that there will be an uptick in crossings once the weather improves, although the home secretary, James Cleverly, has denied that the decrease in crossings is due to the weather and insists it is proof that government policies are working.

Eye-catching data can help the government achieve the kind of headlines we’re seeing today, but until ministers collaborate with counterparts internationally to address the root causes of forced migration rather than deploying policies that superficially poke at the symptoms, Sunak will never be able to deliver on his promise to “stop the boats”. And wouldn’t it be nice if he could hold the thought that this is not just about boats and stats. This is about flesh and blood: real people.